Analysis and measure the impact of oil prices fluctuations on the Inflation rate in Algeria during the period (1990-2017): using autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze and measure the Impact of the oil Prices fluctuations on the Inflation rate in Algeria during the period 1990-2017, To accomplish this task, we used the latest statistical methods have been modern in time series of estimation autoregressive Distributed lags(ARDL) model, this technique is new in analysis the co-integration and error correction models witch more accurate and efficient results. The Most Important Findings of this study is: The Bound Test Approach through F-statistic, that there is a co-integration between the oil Prices and Inflation rate, by the value of its calculated F-statistic, which is greater than the critical value at the significant level of 1%, 2.5% ,5% And 10%; The study also pointed out that there is a negative effect of the oil price on the inflation rate.