التوقعات الديموغرافية في ولاية باتنة و احتياجات قطاع التربية و التعليم آفاق 2050م

Abstract

The aim of this study is to reveal the material and human needs in the education sector in the province of Batna (Algeria) by the year 2050. Demographic data describe the current situation , and enabled us to predict population evolution in the province. Our estimates are based on two factors, namely the death rate and fertility while neglecting the migration factor. Regarding fertility rates we suggested three hypotheses (high, medium and low) while maintaining in our calculations a constant death rate. To these figures we applied the "spectrum software" Results show an uneven distribution of the population, which makes it difficult to give precise estimates of the real educational needs in the different regions of the province, while population will increase in all cases, according to the three hypotheses of fertility. We recommend that policy makers should rely on demographic expectations before drawing up any educational policy.